Euro Crisis - Now it's France

[Dirigent]

Record unemployment in France? Who'd have thought with the new President and all his promises!!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/25/france-jobless-claims-hit_n_3157629.html

My son made wine in France in 2001 and 2003 and he came back home and said "France is finished"! (My daughter formed the same view in 2010-11 when she was there for several months.) We were rather alarmed by his prognostication but it happens that he was probably right. He did make lots of observations to back up his claim and I won't go into these for fear of offending. But his best friend, who has a wine business in Bordeaux, is getting out and returning home because of new employment conditions under Hollande which make running a successful business just that much more difficult. My son said to him, "I told you at the time that if you voted for Hollande you'd soon be out on your ear"!!

The issues are undoubtedly more complex than that, but superficially it's reason enough to steer clear of any Euro nation if you want to work or run a business. It's heart-wrenching and sooner or later all public utilities and institutions will be on the chopping board.

 

[EddieRUKiddingVare]

You should try southern in the southern half of the world, its not rosy here but a damn sight better than up top!

 

[Dirigent]

You should try southern in the southern half of the world, its not rosy here but a damn sight better than up top!

Sorry, I don't follow you here.

The Euro crisis is a game-changer. Somebody has just put a newspaper in our letterbox: "The New Citizen" It's headline: "Do You Intend to Die For the Banks?" and the second item is "Enact a Glass-Steagall Banking Separation, NOW"!! (Everyone should know about Glass-Steagall and it's role in the GFC). I'm on overload and cannot take any more political bad news and armageddon scenarios. (Except, "Arm-a-geddon-outta-here!)

The more things change the more they stay the same. Those screaming headlines about "Dying" for the banks - I'm a shareholder now and it's in my interests to have them prosper. However, in the 1980s, after we had embarked on a huge agricultural enterprise, we were paying 18% INTEREST on our home and our business. Today loans are 5.5% or thereabouts for a home and a bit higher for business.

We keep hearing about the importance of education and it is important (I've been a teacher too) but not unconditional. I have a friend in the USA who has told me his old Quantum Physics lecturer is selling hamburgers for a large fast-food outlet. So, not everybody can be educated to get that higher-level, specialist career. What's needed is people in trades and service industries. We have acute shortages in this area and an over-supply of trained teachers who cannot find work. Our neighbour has two children, one a Geologist and another an Architect. At some point both of these young people will be unemployed (the Geologist is skating on thin ice as we speak). Some balance needs to be returned to the discussion of educating people beyond employment prospects. I look around my street at the successful, wealthy individuals who live here: apart from two specialist doctors and a pharmacist (who has several shops), there is one professional (engineer) another electrical engineer with his own business and the rest are 'trades' - builders, concrete, gyprock, fabrication (building), engineering (welding and tracks for the mining industry - he has his own plane!!). But nobody talks about "tradies" in the "knowledge nation" (because those who are saying this are clueless!). It's demoralizing being highly tertiary educated and under or un-employed.

If people want change they need to get up off their collective backsides and make some noise.

 

[JHC]

You should try southern in the southern half of the world, its not rosy here but a damn sight better than up top!

Yeh, you lot took over our Banks, but your turn is coming.
@Dirigent 25 years ago I received from 15 to 23% interest on term dep 24month to day it is 4 to 4.5% and I understand in the UK a lot less. Hmmmmm now I think about it 35 years would be nearer the mark "don't time fly when you'r having fun"

 

[Dirigent]

Yeh, you lot took over our Banks, but your turn is coming.
@Dirigent 25 years ago I received from 15 to 23% interest on term dep 24month to day it is 4 to 4.5% and I understand in the UK a lot less. Hmmmmm now I think about it 35 years would be nearer the mark "don't time fly when you'r having fun"

Mid-late 1980's we had runaway inflation and high interest rates. This was followed by the "recession we had to have". Now deflation is the concern, particularly in Europe and USA where the terms of trade are appalling, and that's what you get with zero interest rates. I would have thought "quantitative easing" (i.e. printing money) would cause IN-flation, but that hasn't happened - yet.

 

[EddieRUKiddingVare]

They are trying the "printing money" quantitative easing in Japan - to me this is just shades of the 1930's and very scarey

 

[EddieRUKiddingVare]

Sorry, I don't follow you here.

The Euro crisis is a game-changer. Somebody has just put a newspaper in our letterbox: "The New Citizen" It's headline: "Do You Intend to Die For the Banks?" and the second item is "Enact a Glass-Steagall Banking Separation, NOW"!! (Everyone should know about Glass-Steagall and it's role in the GFC). I'm on overload and cannot take any more political bad news and armageddon scenarios. (Except, "Arm-a-geddon-outta-here!)

The more things change the more they stay the same. Those screaming headlines about "Dying" for the banks - I'm a shareholder now and it's in my interests to have them prosper. However, in the 1980s, after we had embarked on a huge agricultural enterprise, we were paying 18% INTEREST on our home and our business. Today loans are 5.5% or thereabouts for a home and a bit higher for business.

We keep hearing about the importance of education and it is important (I've been a teacher too) but not unconditional. I have a friend in the USA who has told me his old Quantum Physics lecturer is selling hamburgers for a large fast-food outlet. So, not everybody can be educated to get that higher-level, specialist career. What's needed is people in trades and service industries. We have acute shortages in this area and an over-supply of trained teachers who cannot find work. Our neighbour has two children, one a Geologist and another an Architect. At some point both of these young people will be unemployed (the Geologist is skating on thin ice as we speak). Some balance needs to be returned to the discussion of educating people beyond employment prospects. I look around my street at the successful, wealthy individuals who live here: apart from two specialist doctors and a pharmacist (who has several shops), there is one professional (engineer) another electrical engineer with his own business and the rest are 'trades' - builders, concrete, gyprock, fabrication (building), engineering (welding and tracks for the mining industry - he has his own plane!!). But nobody talks about "tradies" in the "knowledge nation" (because those who are saying this are clueless!). It's demoralizing being highly tertiary educated and under or un-employed.

If people want change they need to get up off their collective backsides and make some noise.

JHC got my drift, in the Southern Hemisphere and Asia - we are doing much better than you lot up top. I'm saying move down under where we still ave jobs for professionals then- I'm a civil engineer and have plenty of work in my field of water engineering - across the professions here we have under supply unlike your description...............

 

[Dirigent]

I live in the southern hemisphere, Eddie, and am describing the situation in my area of Australia. East coast. Across the professions in WA and SA maybe there are plenty of jobs but not in NSW, Qld and Vic, where they are laying off staff - particularly in the mining industry.

 

[EddieRUKiddingVare]

That is confusing with your Op of this thread re France. Things are much worse in Europe and the US than here -agreed. I work across the country QLD WA VIC and SA. Not so much in NSW but things are better here.

Are your observation of Europe all second hand?

 

[Dirigent]

That is confusing with your Op of this thread re France. Things are much worse in Europe and the US than here -agreed. I work across the country QLD WA VIC and SA. Not so much in NSW but things are better here.

Are your observation of Europe all second hand?

Sorry if I confused you. I can see where you would become confused as I talked about France's problems then went on to discuss how things had been bad in Australia before with high interest rates and inflationary trends. I'm suggesting things will become bad here again unless there are some fundamental changes, i.e. education policies. We don't want the same problems as Europe but this will happen without affirmative action on several fronts.

I don't understand the question about 'second hand' information re France. I did say my son had worked there a decade ago and made some disturbing observations, but most of what I now know comes from reading and listening to debates and discussions. I read American newspapers and am acquainted with the Glass-Steagall Act and how the abandonment of that Act lead, inter alia, to the GFC, which then had implications for Europe.

As you know, we have 457 Visas in place here because there are not sufficient 'trades' jobs to fill the needs of the mining sector in WA. This isn't the case in NSW or Qld, where people are losing their jobs. The over-emphasis (IMO) on professional, tertiary education qualifications for jobs at the expense of trades training is a huge concern. When a nation loses its manufacturing base there is a need to re-examine the changing employment needs of the remaining businesses and industries. For crisis to be averted much prescience and understanding is needed in politics, and I don't hold out much hope for this. There's one person who does know: "Twiggy" Forest!!

 

[EddieRUKiddingVare]

Understood, however - Come on Twiggy or Clive Palmer both would be disasters for Oz if they ever got to power.

The manufacturing "base" in Australia, which was waek at best disappeared 20 years ago, no point dwelling on something that was never established here to any degree and was never a strength of the economy.

 

[Dirigent]

Understood, however - Come on Twiggy or Clive Palmer both would be disasters for Oz if they ever got to power.

The manufacturing "base" in Australia, which was waek at best disappeared 20 years ago, no point dwelling on something that was never established here to any degree and was never a strength of the economy.

Twiggy has done a lot for indigenous people employment-wise and is very supportive. Palmer is barking mad!!

We did have a strong manufacturing base. Do you remember the BHP at all? A huge steel-making enterprise and the largest company Australia ever had. My father was an executive in that company, which closed up shop in Newcastle in the 90's. All that's left now is Pt. Kembla and that is Bluescope now. BHP Billiton is the world's biggest miner and only part of the original company. Then there was a car industry....

 

[JHC]

All of these things are "The Market" looking after itself, I see Spain's unemployment is past 27%.

 

[Dirigent]

All of these things are "The Market" looking after itself, I see Spain's unemployment is past 27%.

That's a catastrophic situation and it demonstrates what I've said for a while - Europe is in a Depression. These are Depression statistics. My husband and I are planning to return to Austria early next year but grow anxious that Europe won't be a safe place. Many of the southern inhabitants will migrate further north to Austria and Germany looking for work. I think Germany is the only European country I'd live in these days, outside of Scandinavia - which would be a first preference.

I think it's time to have a discourse about what kind of society we who live in democracies really want. Look what people power did for the old Soviet Union. It brought down the wall, but mainly because of a strong leader. A good cost-benefit analysis needs to be done in Europe: what is the cost of unchecked immigration, social welfare and restrictive work practices? A nexus exists between this and the expectation of lower taxation. Time for the debate.

 

[EddieRUKiddingVare]

Agree with your comment about Twiggy- hear more good comments about him than bad.

But BHP is just another arm of the government, I have worked in and around them and they are more public service than the public service. ie too big too old and bureaucratic- BHP was a steel making until the market in Australia was opened up to competition, I hardly call that a manufacturing enterprise making steel plate and rolled product with no competition.

 

[EddieRUKiddingVare]

All of these things are "The Market" looking after itself, I see Spain's unemployment is past 27%.

Yep definitely not good or sustainable.................

 

[JHC]

The economy seems to rely on rampant consumerism to provide jobs for the people to give them money to purchase the good that it is producing like a snake that bites its tail and in the end devours itself. I still have products that I purchased 35-40 years ago they still work to day's stuff has built in obsolescence so......................

 

[Dirigent]

Agree with your comment about Twiggy- hear more good comments about him than bad.

But BHP is just another arm of the government, I have worked in and around them and they are more public service than the public service. ie too big too old and bureaucratic- BHP was a steel making until the market in Australia was opened up to competition, I hardly call that a manufacturing enterprise making steel plate and rolled product with no competition.

With respect, this is a bizarre comment. BHP was called "The Big Australian" and it wasn't just steelmaking - it was also a miner. Producing steel for Australian cars and manufacturing rolled product for domestic and international consumption. They also had operations overseas. I know, because my father went to Saudi Arabia to do a feasibility study there for a rolling mill (just to name one place). It spread its tentacles far and wide. Cheaper imports from China are definitely SUB-standard, so you can talk about competition but it might not necessarily result in a better product. Tens of thousands of people worked for BHP and it employed scientists from a broad spectrum of disciplines. Many of them were PhDs. Research and development was a big ticket item at BHP. You are conversing with somebody who virtually lived on the plant in Newcastle for much of her childhood and who was friends through the family with many of the big players. With the demise of BHP went a whole gamut of ancillary manufacturing. If you cannot call steel-making and ancillary products as manufacturing then you must only be talking about FABRICATION.

I think this discussion has run its gamut for me. Too far off course from France and its myriad problems.

 

[teddy]

The situation if France was inevitable. The EU stifles individuality for a start. The Euro stops countries floating up or down to suit the economy. Greece would be on the way to recovery if they had the Drachma and could devalue. making their exports cheap and also making it very attractive for tourists, as Spain once was. I was in Spain the Summer they joined the Euro and noted the effect it had on prices. Suddenly it was expensive to be there. One could no longer buy the =local wine in gallon flagons, presumable in case people got drunk. The French government also made a lot of promises, which any right minded person could sees were going to be impossible to keep, but it got them votes. The EU does not work. Scrap it before Europe becomes another Russia, with all the problems they had, and all the corruption.

teddy

 

[teddy]

The consensus of opinion here is that the Euro is about to collapse. All the countries that are in trouble (Spain Portugal, France, Greece etc) are getting further into the mire and the countries which are giving support ( Germany England etc) are finding that their voters are running out of patience. I will say it again. Let them revert back to their own currencies and float their way out of it. It is the only way without dragging the whole of Europe down.

teddy