I was discussing this last week with a colleague, who is convinced that CDs will go the way of all flesh and that the future of music is downloading.
In my opinion, downloading has its limits. It's perfect for an odd track (I've had a ball finding and then purchasing some really camp singles from the 1970s
), but it's a mixed blessing when it comes to albums. The price (I'm talking UK here, since you can't purchase from anywhere in the world because of limits) can be good – but then again, most shops (let alone the likes of Amazon) will sell CDs cheaper once they're not just released. For instance, chains such as HMV and Virgin in the UK don't so much have occasional sales as always having some racks full of bargains. It's a great way to build a collection and frequently works out cheaper than, say, the average of £7.99 on iTunes.
Then there's the issue of the booklet. A small number of albums have a 'digital' booklet that they send you. Now, for a rock or pop album, that might be adequate, but does anyone really want to print off 30 pages of a guide to, say, the complete Beethoven sonatas? I certainly don't and, by the time you do that and back up your music onto a disc (which you have to buy) and put it in case (which you may even have to buy seperately), it racks up the cost a small amount but also becomes far less of a convenience (and anyone who doesn't back up their downloaded music is an idiot).
Indeed, some downloaded classical albums don't even give you any basic information; I downloaded an album of minimalist music last summer, plus the complete Vaghan Williams symphonies (the latter was going at a daft, daft price). But I've had trouble with dodgy discs backing it up (more cost as several have simply had to be trashed) and I have no information whatsoever.
Again in terms of classical music, the rise of low-price labels like Naxos, together with the re-release of CDs from the archives of many of the major labels, at frankly superb prices, means that I no longer have any incentive to download classical music.
In terms of popular music, there has been a reported rise in the amount of vinyl sold in the UK in the last year or so. Most of this is being put down to revived interest in vinyl among young people – not simply among the DJing and dance contingents, but partly because people like having their music in a physical format. And let's not forget – the demise of vinyl was predicted a long time ago – wrongly.
So I would suggest that CDs might become something that fills a niche in the market – and that niche might primarily be classical music.
